If he decides not to run, the air will go out of the leadership race and Brian Topp will win in a walk. This will deprive the NDP of an exciting race in which to sign up new members.
But if Mulcair decides to run there is no guarantee that he will win. Far from it. Each member has one vote for leader. There are 90,000 NDP members. All but 1800 of these reside outside Quebec. That is two per cent. It will be an enormous challenge for Muclair to build up a majority from this tiny base.
Furthermore Mulcair is perceived by many as an over-aggressive , abrasive politician who takes no prisoners.
Ed Broadbent and Roy Romnanow are already supporting Topp who has a large lead. Topp’s leading problem is that he has never had any public elected office and does not have a seat in Parliament.
Should Mulcair run?
What do you think?